Economic

Economic Monitoring

A fundamental component of the Hunter Valley Research Foundation’s monitoring program is the maintenance of data bases which capture information about the economic health of the Hunter, Upper Hunter and Central Coast Regions.

Databases providing current quarterly or monthly information are maintained in relation to:

building approvals
employment advertisements appearing in the Newcastle Herald
coal and aluminium production
labour force in total and classified according to occupation and industry
motor vehicle registrations
exports and imports through the Port of Newcastle
tourism
retail sales
housing - rent and sales
business and consumer confidence

Information for the publication Newcastle and the Hunter Region is updates less frequently.

Creating a Composite Leading Indicator

In 1996 the Foundation created a new indicator to improve our understanding of the regional economy. The composite leading indicator of economic activity (CLI) is a measure of commitments currently being made with respect to future activity, or factors which influence such commitments.

The composite indicator is compiled from a set group of individual 'leading' economic indicators including building approvals, vehicle registrations, interest rates, job vacancies and share prices. These results are graphed and movements in the CLI indicate whether economic expansion or contraction is likely; that is if regional circumstances are likely to improve or deteriorate.

Since no regional equivalent of national GDP is available, we cannot directly measure the regional economic cycle. However, the Foundation's monitoring of multiple economic indicators over many years now suggests that the CLI will point to turning points in economic activity around a year in advance of trend increases or reductions in other partial indicators of consumption and investment in the Region.

The CLI is calculated on a quarterly basis.

Economic Research Output

The information generated from research in the Hunter Region is captured each quarter in the publication - Hunter Region Economic Indicators (Free Download the latest edition). The publication is released at a breakfast function which attracts around 300 of the Region's business and government leaders.

Likewise the information generated from research in the Upper Hunter is compiled and presented in a six-monthly publication titled Upper Hunter Economic Indicators. (Free Download the latest edition) Similarly the six-monthly breakfast function held in Muswellbrook serves as a launch for the information from the publication.

The information generated from research in the Central Coast is captured six-monthly in the publication - Central Coast Economic Indicators (Free Download the latest editions). The publication is released at a breakfast function which attracts over 150 of the Region's business and government leaders.